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Darren Lott's avatar

Something is happening with this famous example that makes people fail so reliably. Essentially, it is using a “magician’s force.”

If the ball cost problem was presented mathematically like:

x + (x + 1.00) = 1.10

I doubt that the failure rate of University students would still be 50%. Would it be 5% or 0.5% or lower? Probably.

The wording of the problem is intended to engage a verbal attempt at solving it. Remember all the parsing needed to pull meaning from the scenario.

“A bat and ball cost $1.10”

(Two objects are presented in a specific order, and equated with a number also separated in order by two pieces by the decimal. The first object is bat and the first number segment is a dollar; the second object is ball and matches ten cents. Even if the problem is read aloud, “dollar ten” is still two ordered items. This results in:

{bat, dollar}, {ball, ten cents}

Next is the direct sentence further suggesting the cost of the bat is a dollar.

“The bat cost $1...”

Of course, left alone it would be a direct lie, but it continues “more than the ball.”

Since a dollar is more than 10 cents the bat would certainly cost more than the ball. A true statement. The lack of a comma means we are supposed to parse “more” in the sense of an inequality and some people recognize that and restructure the scenario mathematically. But most people will not jump off the initial word base association that was “forced” onto them.

“A Pickle and an Onion when purchased together cost 90 cents. The Onion costs twice as much as the Pickle. How much does each cost?”

How many of your friends would fail simple math problems when presented without the magician’s force?

Jared Peterson's avatar

This is very in line with the work of Gary Klein. A lot of people think his work is about training "intuition," but that is pretty misleading as the experts we study (disclaimer: Gary is my boss) do what you are calling System 3. Though we typically call it Sensemaking, which I think of as a dynamic reciprocal relationship between realizing what is relevant, and framing it up.

> In a sense, it picks up the classic opposition between left brain and right brain, but in a modern version, without the anatomical nonsense.

It's argubably still non-sense. The systems don't exist, and Kahneman recognizes them as mere metaphors. The reason the distinction is still used is merely because, as a field, we haven't coalecesed around a less false way of talking about it.

However, here is how I think about it: when you solve 47x83, you break it down into a series of system 1 steps. So why evoke System 2 at all? System 2 is not a different system, but instead about bringing structure (a frame) to a series of System 1 steps to bound it in a productive way. That's what we see in your example of the bat and the ball, as well. You found a representation (a frame) which constrained your system 1 pattern matching to something you could mentally handle. Why should we understand that to be a any different that breaking down 47x83 into a series of similar pattern matching steps?

This is why one of the initial and most important findings of Naturalistic Decision-Making (the field Gary founded) is the following: "The ways in which individuals made sense of situations often exerts greater influence on their actions than deliberation over a set of predefined options." Because the way you represent and frame a problem is the most important part of reasoning, as everything follows from that representation.

My most recent Substack post gets a little more into this, as well

(btw, your interview on EconTalk was great, and I definitely plan on reading the book)

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